Posted by: Requier Wait | September 15, 2014

Africa upstream: investment climate

The Fraser Institute runs an annual Global Petroleum Survey  which surveys executives and managers on jurisdiction specific barriers to investment in oil and gas exploration and production. The latest results are for 2013 and are briefly discussed here for Africa’s largest oil and gas producers. The survey develops a Policy Perception Index, which incorporates scores for a number of factors that impact on investment. It can be worthwhile to consider the index scores for Africa’s established oil/gas producers in the context of their respective reserve and production values.

In terms of oil reserves, the top ranked countries (2013) are Libya, Nigeria, Angola & Algeria:

oil reserv

In terms of production this ranking is somewhat different with Nigeria in 1st place, followed by Angola, Algeria and lastly Libya:

Oil prod

Although Libya is placed 1st in terms of reserves, the country’s political turmoil and instability has had a significant impact on production.

The same group of countries dominate reserve and production values for natural gas. The top countries for gas reserves are Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt & Libya:

gas Reserves

For gas production the top countries are Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria & Libya:

gas production

In terms of the “Policy Perception Index”, the higher the score the less attractive the jurisdiction, the scores are arranged into 5 quintiles

  1. Score <20 (being most attractive)
  2. 20 to 39.99
  3. 40 to 59.99
  4. 60 to 79.99
  5. 80 to 100 (being least attractive)

The 2013 Policy Perception Index scores for the above mentioned producers are illustrated below:

Score

The jurisdiction rankings (out of 157 countries) are as follows:

Angola    108.00 (Score: 60.14)
Egypt      117.00  (Score: 62.62)
Algeria    126.00 (Score: 71.04)
Nigeria    135.00 (Score: 75.75)
Libya       145.00 (Score: 79.98)

Although investment barriers play a major role, the basin maturity and existing reserves also have a significant impact, as is shown by Libya.

Note: All the graphs are based on data obtained from

  • The 2014 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
  • The Fraser Institute’s 2013 Global Petroleum Survey.

 

 

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